memos: matty_fred at hotmail
|
 |
Tuesday, September 27, 2005
Revisiting the Shuffled Shortstops
Cabrera |
Eckstein |
Renteria |
Last offseason, the St. Louis Cardinals, the Anaheim (Los Angeles) Angels and the Boston Red Sox shuffled their shortstops. Orlando Cabrera, acquired in mid-season 2004 by the Red Sox, signed with the Angels for 2005. Edgar Renteria left the Cardinals for the Red Sox, and David Eckstein left the Angels for the Cardinals. It was a winter of shortstop switcheroo. Now with less than a week of baseball before the end of the regular season, let's take a look at how each SS has fared, and which team (at least this season) has enjoyed the best outcome of the shuffle. Here are the 2005 season OBP/SLG/OPS (On-Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage/On-Base Plus Slugging Percentage) numbers for each player as of Monday morning:
| (STL) Eckstein |
|
362 / 396 / 757 |
| (BOS) Renteria |
|
332 / 376 / 708 |
| (LAA) Cabrera |
|
310 / 364 / 674 |
So far, it looks as if David Eckstein of the St. Louis Cardinals has put together a better 2005 season offensively than either Edgar Renteria of the Boston Red Sox or Orlando Cabrera of the LA Angels of A. But did the Angels and Red Sox get less than they anticipated from their winter free agent signees? Let's take a look at the 2004 OBP/SLG/OPS numbers:
| (LAA) Eckstein |
|
339 / 332/ 671 |
| (STL) Renteria |
|
327 / 401/ 728 |
| (BOS&MON) Cabrera |
|
306 / 383 / 689 |
Renteria's numbers from 2004 and 2005 aren't dramatically different. Neither are Cabrera's 2004 and 2005 numbers very disimiliar. Still, both players' OPS are lower this season than last. Renteria's OPS is down 20 points, while Cabrera's OPS is down 15 points. Eckstein, meanwhile, sports an OPS 86 points higher than last year's. Wow. Not only is Eckstein putting up better offensive numbers than his Shuffled Shortstop counterparts, he's making less money this year than either Renteria or Cabrera. This season, the Cardinals are paying Eckstein $2.3 million to play shortstop. The Red Sox are paying Renteria $8 Million, and the Angels are paying Cabrera $6 million. So, why the higher salaries from Boston and LAnaheim for the less-productive-in-2005 Renteria and Cabrera? Check out these two players' 2003 OBP/SLG/OPS lines:
| (STL) Renteria |
|
394 / 480 / 874 |
| (MON) Cabrera |
|
347 / 460 / 807 |
Those are two monster 2003 seasons offensively. Both Renteria's and Cabrera's 2003 seasons by a wide margin exceed Eckstein's excellent 2005 effort as well. So here, in 2003, are what the Red Sox and Angels were expecting for 2005 from their offseason acquirements. Offensive production similiar to Cabrera's and Renteria's 2003 seasons would justify their respective $6 million and $8 million salaries in 2005. It seems both the Angels and Red Sox organizations figured 2004 was merely a bump in the road for Cabrera and Renteria. Let's take a look at the comparison fangraphs for the three Shuffled Shortstops. Here's the OBP graph for all three SS's going back to '97. Here's the SLG graph. From 1997 to 2003, both Cabrera and Renteria increased their OBP, SLG and OPS. While each player experienced instances of decline from one given year to the next, the overall trend line was upward. Renteria and Cabrera had "off" years in 2004, but the overall trend line suggested better seasons in 2005. There had been bumps in the road for each player before. But Renteria and Cabrera haven't had better seasons in 2005 than 2004. In fact, this season will mark the first time both players have had two consecutive declines in OPS. Are the 2004 and 2005 seasons merely an extended slump for Renteria and Cabrera, or have both players started to decline after their peak seasons of 2003? Next season should provide the answer. As for which team got the best deal in the shortstop shuffle this season, the answer's most probably the St. Louis Cardinals. How much of a better deal did the Cardinals get? Let's take a look at each shortstop's VORP, or Value Over Replacement Player. If you're not familiar with VORP, it's "the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances." In other words, and for our purposes, a VORP score can be understood as how much offensively better each shuffled shortstop is than the average replacement shortstop. Taking each shortstop's VORP score and dividing it by his salary (minus the $300,000 league minimum) will show how much money per run produced over replacement each shortstop costs:
| Player |
|
VORP |
|
Salary |
|
$ - min./VORP |
| (STL) Eckstein |
|
40.7 |
|
$2.3 mil |
|
$ 49,140 |
| (BOS) Renteria |
|
21.5 |
|
$8.0 mil |
|
$358,139 |
| (LAA) Cabrera |
|
17.8 |
|
$6.0 mil |
|
$320,224 |
In 2005, the St. Louis Cardinals are definitely getting more bang for their buck offensively from the shortstop position as compared to the Boston Red Sox and the LAnaheim Angels. Given the low price the Cardinals have payed for Eckstein's services, whether the Cardinals will continue to enjoy the best deal has more to do with whether or not Renteria or Cabrera can justify their higher salaries with higher production in '06. Later, I hope to report on another question regarding the Shuffled Shortstops: Do one or some of these shortstops' defensive abilities make up for their poorer performance at the plate? So much so that they're, in fact, more valuable overall than the best-hitting Shuffled Shortstop? Stay tuned ... Player salary information was provided by USA Today's excellent Baseball Salaries Database.
Posted at 01:28 am by matty_fred
permalink
Wednesday, September 21, 2005
Meet the new Tribe, not the same as the old Tribe
The news lately has been so dismal and depressing, I have difficulty reading it let alone excerpting and commenting upon it. As Justice Earl Warren once put it: "The sports page records people's accomplishments; The front page nothing but their failures."
So today, I'll turn my attention toward the sports page and to the well-accomplished Cleveland Indians of the American League Central. Seemingly from nowhere, the Tribe have vaulted to the top of the AL wild-card race. Tonight, they play the rubber match of a series against the first-place Chicago White Sox, after losing to Chicago in a barnburner of a game last night. After this series with Chicago, the Indians still have three more games against the lately faltering White Sox. First place in the Central still is very much a possibility. In the Hardball Times, David Gassko describes how the Indians organization developed such a succesfull team in an article appropriately titled "A Mini-Dynasty in the Making". The entire article is very much worth the read, though here is the paragraph that struck me the most:
But mostly, [Indians GM Mark Shapiro] was just patient. He had a young team—a good young team—and he knew it. He knew that Crisp, Sizemore, and Jhonny Peralta were just going to get better. He knew that Cliff Lee, with his Barry Zito-esque curveball, was on the cusp of stardom. He knew that if he just waited, his patience would be rewarded. Often times, the hardest thing a front office can do is remain patient, especially when the team isn't playing well and the fans and the media clamor for immediate action. Here's to Mark Shapiro and the Cleveland Indians for not only formulating a great plan to get back on top, but also for having the faith and discipline to follow it in the face of outside pressures and the temptations of "quick fixes."
(Is there a larger lesson in the Cleveland Indians example I'd do well to learn? Nah, it's just sports.)
UPDATE: Indians beat White Sox 8 - 0, putting the Indians 2.5 games behind the White Sox.
Posted at 07:02 pm by matty_fred
permalink
Saturday, September 17, 2005
Posted at 06:53 pm by matty_fred
permalink
Friday, September 16, 2005
Potemkin on the Mississippi
Brian Williams reports:
I am duty-bound to report the talk of the New Orleans warehouse district last night: there was rejoicing (well, there would have been without the curfew, but the few people I saw on the streets were excited) when the power came back on for blocks on end. Kevin Tibbles was positively jubilant on the live update edition of Nightly News that we fed to the West Coast. The mini-mart, long ago cleaned out by looters, was nonetheless bathed in light, including the empty, roped-off gas pumps. The motorcade route through the district was partially lit no more than 30 minutes before POTUS drove through. And yet last night, no more than an hour after the President departed, the lights went out. The entire area was plunged into total darkness again, to audible groans. It's enough to make some of the folks here who witnessed it... jump to certain conclusions.
Posted at 01:01 pm by matty_fred
permalink
Tuesday, September 13, 2005
Apparently, the Pentagon didn't get the memo. SF Chronicle:Recovery team members wearing white protective suits and black boots stopped at houses with spray painted markings on the doors designating there were dead bodies inside.
Outside one house on Kentucky Street, a member of the Army 82nd Airborne Division summoned a reporter and photographer standing nearby and told them that if they took pictures or wrote a story about the body recovery process, he would take away their press credentials and kick them out of the state.
"No photos. No stories," said the man, wearing camouflage fatigues and a red beret.
On Saturday, after being challenged in court by CNN, the Bush administration agreed not to prevent the news media from following the effort to recover the bodies of Hurricane Katrina victims.
But on Monday, in the Bywater district, that assurance wasn't being followed. The 82nd Airborne soldier told reporters the Army had a policy that requires media to be 300 meters -- more than three football fields in length -- away from the scene of body recoveries in New Orleans. If reporters wrote stories or took pictures of body recoveries, they would be reported and face consequences, he said, including a loss of access for up-close coverage of certain military operations. Meanwhile, Bush has taken responsibility "to the extent that the federal government didn't fully do its job right." (Um, sure seems to be an awful lot of wiggle room in that phrase.) Steve Soto:I'd like to think that once he stepped out of his cocoon and now that he has seen first hand how his administration has failed here, Bush is simply acknowledging the obvious. But this probably has more to do with his GOP sycophants in Congress telling him to eat it and move on because they are all reading the same polls regarding 2006. The latest Survey USA poll still has Bush at 55% disapproval with regard to his response to Hurricane Katrina. The "don't play the blame game" rhetoric out of the White House was ringing hollow, and likewise the disapproval numbers weren't budging. Time to "cut bait." As Steve Soto points out, the Congressional Republicans are getting very worried they'll pay the price for Bush's tone deafness.

Posted at 11:40 pm by matty_fred
permalink
Sunday, September 11, 2005
E&P:NEW YORK (AP) Challenged in court by CNN, the Bush administration agreed on Saturday not to prevent the news media from following the effort to recover the bodies of Hurricane Katrina victims.
The government won't, however, permit photographers to join them in boats or helicopters during the mission to recover bodies from flooded homes. ... Army Lt. Col. Richard Steele said that DeGraff's statement didn't represent a change in policy. Reporters can watch recovery efforts they come upon, but they won't be embedded with search teams.
"We're not going to bar, impede or prevent" the media from telling the story, he said. "We're just not going to give the media a ride."
Posted at 01:54 pm by matty_fred
permalink
Thursday, September 08, 2005
Think Progress has assembled an excellent Katrina timeline of the events and (in)actions before, during and after the hurricane. Included in the timeline are highlights of our president using vital rescue helicopters and rescue personell as photo-op props while thousands remained in dire need of rescue.[Friday, 09-02]10 AM — PRESIDENT BUSH STAGES PHOTO-OP “BRIEFING”: Coast Guard helicopters and crew diverted to act as backdrop for President Bush’s photo-op.
BUSH VISIT GROUNDS FOOD AID: “Three tons of food ready for delivery by air to refugees in St. Bernard Parish and on Algiers Point sat on the Crescent City Connection bridge Friday afternoon as air traffic was halted because of President Bush’s visit to New Orleans, officials said.”
BUSH USES 50 FIREFIGHTERS AS PROPS IN DISASTER AREA PHOTO-OP: A group of 1,000 firefighters convened in Atlanta to volunteer with the Katrina relief efforts. Of those, “a team of 50 Monday morning quickly was ushered onto a flight headed for Louisiana. The crew’s first assignment: to stand beside President Bush as he tours devastated areas.” As of September 7, disapproval of Bush's handling of the Katrina disaster stands at 52%, while approval stands at 43% (Survey USA). That's a slight narrowing of the gap over the last three days. The administration may have "stopped the bleeding" with its PR offensive, but the potential for a run-up in disapproval remains. As the water begins to recede in New Orleans, the corpses of those left behind are revealed and the potential for even wider-spread public dissatisfaction with the president becomes apparent. Reuters: NEW ORLEANS, Sept 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. government agency leading the rescue efforts after Hurricane Katrina said on Tuesday it does not want the news media to take photographs of the dead as they are recovered from the flooded New Orleans area.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency, heavily criticized for its slow response to the devastation caused by the hurricane, rejected requests from journalists to accompany rescue boats as they went out to search for storm victims. Operation Flashlight:We are in Jefferson Parish, just outside of New Orleans. At the National Guard checkpoint, they are under orders to turn away all media. All of the reporters are turning they’re [sic] TV trucks around.
Things are so bad, Bush is now censoring all reporting from NOLA. The First Amendment sank with the city. But it's not just "radical lefty bloggers" telling this story. Here's NBC News anchor Brian Williams:While we were attempting to take pictures of the National Guard (a unit from Oklahoma) taking up positions outside a Brooks Brothers on the edge of the Quarter, the sergeant ordered us to the other side of the boulevard. The short version is: there won't be any pictures of this particular group of guard soldiers on our newscast tonight. Rules (or I suspect in this case an order on a whim) like those do not HELP the palpable feeling that this area is somehow separate from the United States.
At that same fire scene, a police officer from out of town raised the muzzle of her weapon and aimed it at members of the media... obvious members of the media... armed only with notepads. Her actions (apparently because she thought reporters were encroaching on the scene) were over the top and she was told. There are automatic weapons and shotguns everywhere you look. It's a stance that perhaps would have been appropriate during the open lawlessness that has long since ended on most of these streets. Someone else points out on television as I post this: the fact that the National Guard now bars entry (by journalists) to the very places where people last week were barred from LEAVING (The Convention Center and Superdome) is a kind of perverse and perfectly backward postscript to this awful chapter in American history. Williams got it almost right. It's not Katrina, but Bush Jr. who is the "awful chapter in American history," while Katrina is Bush Jr.'s "perverse and perfectly backward postscript."
Posted at 01:02 am by matty_fred
permalink
|