NEED KNOWS NO SEASON & NEITHER DOES DISASTER.


from the desk of …
matty fred





Wednesday, August 10, 2005
we got a great big convoy

Ah, breaker one-nine, this here's the Rubber Duck. You gotta copy on me, Pig Pen, c'mon? Ah, yeah, 10-4, Pig Pen, fer shure, fer shure. By golly, it's clean clear to Flag Town, c'mon. Yeah, that's a big 10-4 there, Pig Pen, yeah, we definitely got the front door, good buddy. Mercy sakes alive, looks like we got us a convoy ...



I says, "Pig Pen, this here's the Rubber Duck."
"We just ain't a-gonna pay no toll."
So we crashed the gate doing ninety-eight
I says "Let them truckers roll, 10-4."




Click here for a larger graph from Pollkatz. Click here for complete lyrics.

Posted at 10:36 pm by matty_fred
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Monday, August 08, 2005
pitcher abuse: in dusty don't trusty


Suckers.

Chicago Cubs hurler Carlos Zambrano left his start against the Mets early last night due to injury.
Carlos Zambrano (8-5) left after 80 pitches because of tightness in his lower back. He gave up two earned runs and four hits and departed trailing 4-0.

"He's had that from time to time. That's the first time he's had it this year, but when a guy comes to you and says his back is really tight, you can't leave him in there,'' Baker said. "It's just unfortunate that it happened tonight at the end of this trip, a bad road trip.''
Cubs manager Dusty Baker used the term "unfortunate," but even many casual baseball fans are aware of Baker's reputation as a skipper who overworks his starting pitchers, thus leaving them susceptible to injury.

So, does Baker abuse his starting pitchers any more than other managers? In order to try and answer this question, I examined Baseball Prospectus' compilation of Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP) for every starter in the Major Leagues from 2003 to the present.

PAP's are earned for every pitch by an individual pitcher exceeding 100 per game. The number of pitches exceeding 100 are then cubed, and the result is the PAP's for that start. For example, if a pitcher throws 110 pitches in an outing, 10 x 10 x 10 = 1000 PAP's for that outing.

So, why is the number cubed? Keen observers at BP have noted that when a pitcher approaches around 100 pitches in a game, each susequent pitch inflicts an ever-multiplying amount of abuse upon the pitcher. Though the formula for PAP is by no means exact, the 100-pitch threshold nevertheless creates a "bright line" for evaluating pitcher work loads.

Okay, back to Dusty's use of his starters as compared to the rest of the Major League managers. I examined PAP's for Major League starters from 2003 to the present, because 2003 was the first season of Baker's tenure as Cubs manager. Since I was looking for a pattern of high abuse of pitchers by Dusty Baker, I scanned only the top quintile of PAP scores in search of Chicago Cubs. I chose to examine only the top quintile under the admittedly dubious assumption that "normal" circumstances would show rougly one pitcher from each team in the top quintile due to the near uniform use of 5-man rotations.

Cubs Pitchers in Top Quintile of PAP (2003 to 2005):

Percentile PAP
2003
Kerry Wood 99th 261,206
Mark Prior 98th 232,397
Carlos Zambrano 96th 110,824
Matt Clement 83rd 35,679
2004
Carlos Zambrano 99th 158,715
Kerry Wood 94th 67,576
Matt Clement 88th 43,460
Mark Prior 83rd 36,854
2005
Carlos Zambrano 99th 108,375
Mark Prior 91st 31,466


Barely missing the cut in 2003 was Shawn Estes in the 77th percentile. So far for 2005, Glendon Rusch is in the 73rd percentile. Rusch may yet climb to the 80th percentile this year now that Zambrano may be out for a while.

Compared to the rest of the majors, a higher than normal amount of Cubs starters have been abused at higher rates than normal during Dusty Baker's tenure as Cubs manager. What should disturb Cub fans is that despite the injuries suffered over the last two seasons by Wood, Prior and now Zambrano, Baker hasn't set limits on pitchers' workloads per start. Kerry Wood's health issues should have served as a warning to Baker to lessen pitch counts. Yet the warnings against pitcher abuse represented by Wood's and later Prior's injuries went unheeded.

In 2003 when Baker took the helm in Chicago, he was hailed as a "player's manager" whose rapport with the modern baseball player allowed him to credibly impart his "old-school" teamwork philosophy. He was going to be the North Side's savior, finally bringing a National League Pennant, perhaps even a World Championship to long-suffering yet faithful fans. A popular motto around Chicago that year eventually found its way on countless t-shirts: In Dusty We Trusty.

But for a "player's manager," Baker has certainly done much to jeopardize the careers of several talented young pitchers – talented young pitchers who were to provide the backbone for years of successful pennant races and playoff series wins. Not only did trusting in Dusty wear out some pitchers, it may very well have dashed the Cubs' hopes for a World Series berth for many years to come. That's not unfortunate. That's preventable.

Posted at 04:09 am by matty_fred
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Sunday, August 07, 2005
it's scooter

Murray Waas at The American Prospect reports:
I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby, the chief of staff to Vice President Dick Cheney, has told federal investigators that he met with New York Times reporter Judith Miller on July 8, 2003, and discussed CIA operative Valerie Plame, according to legal sources familiar with Libby's account.

The meeting between Libby and Miller has been a central focus of the investigation by special prosecutor Patrick J. Fitzgerald as to whether any Bush administration official broke the law by unmasking Plame's identity or relied on classified information to discredit former Ambassador Joseph C. Wilson, according to sources close to the case as well as documents filed in federal court by Fitzgerald.

Scooter passing classified info to Judy the Frog
Libby has reportedly told Fitzgerald that he first learned of Plame's identity from NBC Washington bureau chief Tim Russert. But Russert has told investigators that he never told Libby about Plame. Rove said that he first learned the information from his conversation with Robert Novak.

By saying that they learned the information from reporters, the stakes are dramatically raised for the two White House aides: If it turns out that it can be shown that they learned the information from a classified source, such as the State Department memo, they could be in legal jeopardy for disclosing classified information. And if they misled investigators or the federal grand jury on that question, that trouble could be compounded.

The one person with some of the answers as to whether Libby is telling the truth very well may be Judith Miller. But she currently is incarcerated in an Alexandria jail. Lewis Libby appears to have the ability to ascertain Miller’s release by simply signing a specific, personal waiver that she disclose what she knows.

But Libby does not appear to be willing to do that.

And the president of the United States -- at whose pleasure Libby serves and who has vowed to do everything possible to get to the truth of the matter -- does not appear to be likely to direct Libby to grant such a waiver any time soon.
The whole article is very much worth the read, as it presents the entire Plamegate narrative up to this point.

Posted at 01:55 am by matty_fred
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Saturday, August 06, 2005
operation quick strike

USA Today:
For the first time, a majority of Americans, 51%, say the Bush administration deliberately misled the public about whether Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction — the reason Bush emphasized in making the case for invading. The administration's credibility on the issue has been steadily eroding since 2003.

By 58%-37%, a majority say the United States won't be able to establish a stable, democratic government in Iraq.

About one-third, 32%, say the United States can't win the war in Iraq. Another 21% say the United States could win the war, but they don't think it will. Just 43% predict a victory.
No doubt increasing American deaths in Iraq, especially the deaths of 14 Marines due to a roadside bomb in western Iraq have accelerated a long decline in optimism about the war. Today, the Pentagon announced a new military operation in western Iraq dubbed "Operation Quick Strike."
The operation, dubbed Quick Strike, began Wednesday with Iraqi soldiers and Marines positioning their units, said a military statement. They are focused on an area centered around the cities of Haditha, Haqlaniyah and Parwana, about 140 miles northwest of Baghdad.

On Wednesday, 14 Marines and their civilian translator were killed when their vehicle was hit by a roadside bomb near Haditha as they traveled inside a lightly armored vehicle.

On Friday, U.S. and Iraqi troops, including Special Operations forces, moved into the city of Haqlaniyah, the Marine statement said. U.S. jets attacked insurgents hiding in buildings outside the town.

Residents in the area said U.S. and Iraqi forces had cordoned off Haqlaniyah and were conducting house-to-house searches. U.S. warplanes circled overhead and a number of heavy explosions were heard. Witnesses said 500-pound bombs were being dropped in the area.
Now, I'm just an average American citizen with minimal knowledge of military tactics, so I'm confused as to how this new-fangled Operation Quick Strike appreciably differs from our previously numerous, but less prominently named operations in western Iraq.
The U.S. military has defended its operations in western Iraq, insisting it is reducing insurgent attacks, despite the deaths of the 14 Marines.
If I were the jaded, cynical sort, I'd surmise this latest high-profile operation is simply that: high-profile. If I were a hand-wringing moralist, I'd worry that, in an effort to create the appearance of results for Operation Quick Strike, the Pentagon may be tempted to put our troops under greater danger than usual in order to achieve this goal. But, while a majority of the American public may disagree, I for one will continue to resist such cynicism and moralism.

After all, it is neither Americans nor insurgents who will determine who wins this war, but a third party nebulously defined as the "Iraqi People." Their hearts, minds and quality of life will determine the success of our efforts.

Posted at 06:00 pm by matty_fred
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Friday, August 05, 2005
"grim reminder"


Marines pick through the rubble left behind by an IED that killed 14 troops, an Iraq I veteran and his son mourn in Ohio, and President Bush goes for a ride in his truck at the Crawford ranch.

As support for Bush's handling of the Iraq war plunges into true-believer territory, our President has decided to go forward with plans for a month-long vacation at his Texas ranch. Having lived in McClennan County, Texas, I know how hot it can get on that ranch in August. While Bush's Texas retreat may help distance himself personally from, in his words, the "grim reminder" of U.S. fatalities in Iraq, he won't be able to avoid the political heat from Republican congressmen. Republican members of the House do not have the luxury to take month-long vacations. 2006 approaches, and as the more vulnerable GOP representatives go home to their districts, they won't like what they hear from their constituents regarding their party's leader. As the OH-02 race demonstrated, even bedrock Republican voters are growing weary of this war.
The war will be a major factor in the 2006 midterm congressional races and could be one in the 2008 presidential race, said Stephen Cimbala, a Pennsylvania State University political scientist who has studied the impact of wars on American politics.

“If you look at it from a Republican point of view, by the 2006 congressional elections, you’re going to want to have a timetable in place for withdrawal of U.S. forces and their replacement by Iraqis. And by the fall of 2008, you will want to have most U.S. forces out of there,” Cimbala said.
When support for the war plummetted in June, Bush gave a prime-time address that in retrospect bought him some time with the public. Now that time has almost run out, the public is growing restless, and the GOP congress will at first quietly begin to put some pressure on Bush for something at least resembling a timetable of withdrawal from Iraq. But with Bush seemingly hell-bent on refusing to provide a timetable, expect especially the vulnerable Republicans to stay as far away from Bush as possible.


Posted at 03:02 am by matty_fred
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Thursday, August 04, 2005
a well-timed tantrum



Conservative columnist, recently-defunct Crossfire co-host and ... Plamegate leak conduit Robert Novak has been suspended indefinitely from CNN after "he swore and walked off the set Thursday during a debate with Democratic operative James Carville." Media Matters has the video, and it's pretty funny.
While discussing Rep. Katherine Harris's (R-FL) plan to run for a Senate seat against Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL), Novak told Carville, "Just let me finish what I'm going to say, James, please. I know you hate to hear me." Carville said to host Ed Henry, describing Novak: "He's gotta show these right-wingers that he's got backbone, you know. The Wall Street Journal editorial page is watching you. Show 'em you're tough."

Novak responded: "Well, I think that's bullshit, and I hate that." He then said to Henry, "Just let it go." As Henry asked Carville a question, Novak walked off the set.

After the segment ended, Henry apologized to viewers for Novak's leaving the set "a little early," adding: "I had told him in advance that we were going to ask him about the CIA leak case. He was not here for me to be able to ask him about that. Hopefully, we'll be able to ask him about that in the future."
First, I always thought of Novak as the kind of guy who would call things "poppycock" or "balderdash," not "bullshit." Second, it's interesting that he throws this tantrum just before the moderator is about to ask him about his role in Plamegate. Now, perhaps he was steamed after receiving advance warning by the host and Carville simply set Novak off, but this sudden cuss-word utterance and quick exit off of the soundstage by Novak was interestingly timed.

Too bad the moderator didn't follow Novak backstage Maury Povich-style in an attempt to comfort Mr. Novak and coax him back onto the stage. If this sort of thing becomes a common occurrence on Inside Politics, perhaps CNN will see it fit to invest in a shoulder-mounted cameraman and a mobile boom mic. Just a suggestion.

UPDATE: Joshua Marshall wonders if Novak spied a certain big red book in front of the moderator and high-tailed it.

Posted at 11:23 pm by matty_fred
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Wednesday, August 03, 2005
last chance for free bp

Today is your last chance to peruse all of the content at Baseball Prospectus for free, as tomorrow access to most of the content will again revert to subscriber-only. Not a bad idea at all on BP's part to allow unfettered access during the trade-deadline period. I'm sure they hooked enough new subscribers to make it worth their while. As for me, I'm too cheap to pay. So this evening I'll get a free fix that hopefully will tide me over until their next free-access subscription drive.

Posted at 02:24 pm by matty_fred
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