memos: matty_fred at hotmail
|
 |
Friday, August 05, 2005
  
Marines pick through the rubble left behind by an IED that killed 14 troops, an Iraq I veteran and his son mourn in Ohio, and President Bush goes for a ride in his truck at the Crawford ranch.
As support for Bush's handling of the Iraq war plunges into true-believer territory, our President has decided to go forward with plans for a month-long vacation at his Texas ranch. Having lived in McClennan County, Texas, I know how hot it can get on that ranch in August. While Bush's Texas retreat may help distance himself personally from, in his words, the "grim reminder" of U.S. fatalities in Iraq, he won't be able to avoid the political heat from Republican congressmen. Republican members of the House do not have the luxury to take month-long vacations. 2006 approaches, and as the more vulnerable GOP representatives go home to their districts, they won't like what they hear from their constituents regarding their party's leader. As the OH-02 race demonstrated, even bedrock Republican voters are growing weary of this war.The war will be a major factor in the 2006 midterm congressional races and could be one in the 2008 presidential race, said Stephen Cimbala, a Pennsylvania State University political scientist who has studied the impact of wars on American politics.
“If you look at it from a Republican point of view, by the 2006 congressional elections, you’re going to want to have a timetable in place for withdrawal of U.S. forces and their replacement by Iraqis. And by the fall of 2008, you will want to have most U.S. forces out of there,” Cimbala said. When support for the war plummetted in June, Bush gave a prime-time address that in retrospect bought him some time with the public. Now that time has almost run out, the public is growing restless, and the GOP congress will at first quietly begin to put some pressure on Bush for something at least resembling a timetable of withdrawal from Iraq. But with Bush seemingly hell-bent on refusing to provide a timetable, expect especially the vulnerable Republicans to stay as far away from Bush as possible.
Posted at 03:02 am by matty_fred
permalink
Thursday, August 04, 2005
 Conservative columnist, recently-defunct Crossfire co-host and ... Plamegate leak conduit Robert Novak has been suspended indefinitely from CNN after "he swore and walked off the set Thursday during a debate with Democratic operative James Carville." Media Matters has the video, and it's pretty funny.While discussing Rep. Katherine Harris's (R-FL) plan to run for a Senate seat against Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL), Novak told Carville, "Just let me finish what I'm going to say, James, please. I know you hate to hear me." Carville said to host Ed Henry, describing Novak: "He's gotta show these right-wingers that he's got backbone, you know. The Wall Street Journal editorial page is watching you. Show 'em you're tough."
Novak responded: "Well, I think that's bullshit, and I hate that." He then said to Henry, "Just let it go." As Henry asked Carville a question, Novak walked off the set.
After the segment ended, Henry apologized to viewers for Novak's leaving the set "a little early," adding: "I had told him in advance that we were going to ask him about the CIA leak case. He was not here for me to be able to ask him about that. Hopefully, we'll be able to ask him about that in the future." First, I always thought of Novak as the kind of guy who would call things "poppycock" or "balderdash," not "bullshit." Second, it's interesting that he throws this tantrum just before the moderator is about to ask him about his role in Plamegate. Now, perhaps he was steamed after receiving advance warning by the host and Carville simply set Novak off, but this sudden cuss-word utterance and quick exit off of the soundstage by Novak was interestingly timed.
Too bad the moderator didn't follow Novak backstage Maury Povich-style in an attempt to comfort Mr. Novak and coax him back onto the stage. If this sort of thing becomes a common occurrence on Inside Politics, perhaps CNN will see it fit to invest in a shoulder-mounted cameraman and a mobile boom mic. Just a suggestion.
UPDATE: Joshua Marshall wonders if Novak spied a certain big red book in front of the moderator and high-tailed it.
Posted at 11:23 pm by matty_fred
permalink
Wednesday, August 03, 2005
Today is your last chance to peruse all of the content at Baseball Prospectus for free, as tomorrow access to most of the content will again revert to subscriber-only. Not a bad idea at all on BP's part to allow unfettered access during the trade-deadline period. I'm sure they hooked enough new subscribers to make it worth their while. As for me, I'm too cheap to pay. So this evening I'll get a free fix that hopefully will tide me over until their next free-access subscription drive.
Posted at 02:24 pm by matty_fred
permalink
Republican Jean Schmidt (52%) narrowly defeated Democrat Paul Hackett (48%) for the OH-02 Congressional seat. In a district that ordinarily votes 70% GOP from the top of the ticket down, Hackett's strong showing at the polls is truly extraordinary. So, how well does Hackett's strong showing bode for Democratic gains in '06? Is this race a harbinger of a blue tide in '06, or was this race a once-in-a-blue-moon convergence of factors?
Blue Tide
Political observers love special and off-year elections. They often serve as bellwethers of the national mood, and provide clues as to how the parties will fare in the on-year Congressional and Presidential races. As for the OH-02 race as a barometer of the national mood and a harbinger of the '06 results, prominent political observer Charlie Cook had this to say:If Schmidt's victory margin is in double digits, this tells us that there is not much of an anti-GOP wind in Ohio right now. If the margin is say six to nine points for Schmidt, then there is a wind, but certainly no hurricane. A Schmidt win of less than five points should be a very serious warning sign for Ohio Republicans that something is very, very wrong, while a Hackett victory would be a devastating blow to the Ohio GOP. Schmidt won by a little less than four points, indicating the Democrats are poised to pick up seats next Fall.
Blue Moon
Still, there are some very specific circumstances that helped Hackett achieve such an unexpectedly strong showing. The Ohio GOP has been rocked by corruption scandals, most notably "Coingate." Jean Schmidt has close ties to Coingate's most prominent offenders, and the Hackett campaign never ceased to hammer Schmidt about it. The Hackett campaign received incredible donor and volunteer support from the "netroots" to the tune of roughly $400,000 and canvassers from around the country. (Though it should be noted that the Schmidt campaign's spending was roughly $1 million and very well organized on the ground.) The influx of cash and volunteers for Hackett seemed to catch the Schmidt campaign flat-footed. Finally though equally importantly, Paul Hackett's recent service in Iraq lended him a current credibility few ordinary candidates would ever have, let alone deserve. No doubt these factors would be hard to repeat in 200+ congressional districts.
National Trends
But certain factors in the OH-02 race do suggest broader, more national trends. The "culture of corruption" in Ohio that Hackett ran against easily translates to the national scene. GOP Congressional leaders such as Tom Delay and prominent White House figures such as Karl Rove remind the public every day of Washington Republican corruption. While Hackett did not advocate an immediate withdrawal from Iraq, he constantly criticized the war as a mistake, and spared no words in blaming Bush and the GOP Congress for it. (He even famously called Bush a "son of a bitch!") National polls show most people are now thinking the war was a mistake, and Bush's approval ratings seem static in the low 40's. 48% of OH-02 were ready to buck the GOP establishment in a 70% GOP district. If this doesn't indicate a larger anti-establishment mood, I'm not sure what does.
So, if the Democrats want to pick up seats in '06, OH-02 provides them a partial blueprint for success: Run strongly against establishment corruption, run strongly against the GOP botching the war, and run strongly against the President. Be anti-establishment.
Posted at 03:25 am by matty_fred
permalink
Tuesday, August 02, 2005
Today there is a special election to fill an open congressional seat in Ohio-02. While the district leans extraordinarily Republican, Democrat and Iraq War II vet Paul Hackett has made a race out of it. Further helping Hackett's chances, his opponent State Senator Jean Schmidt has been caught up in the Ohio GOP "Coingate" scandal. While Hackett still remains very much the underdog, his campaign seems to be peaking at exactly the right moment. A strong showing by Hackett today could prove a harbinger of Democratic gains in '06. The excellent Swing State Project will provide extensive coverage of OH-02 into the evening. Check it out.
Posted at 03:12 pm by matty_fred
permalink
Monday, August 01, 2005
raffy holds a conference call
Posted at 11:50 pm by matty_fred
permalink
gloating on deadline sunday
Posted at 01:35 am by matty_fred
permalink
|
