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Wednesday, August 03, 2005
Today is your last chance to peruse all of the content at Baseball Prospectus for free, as tomorrow access to most of the content will again revert to subscriber-only. Not a bad idea at all on BP's part to allow unfettered access during the trade-deadline period. I'm sure they hooked enough new subscribers to make it worth their while. As for me, I'm too cheap to pay. So this evening I'll get a free fix that hopefully will tide me over until their next free-access subscription drive.
Posted at 02:24 pm by matty_fred
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Republican Jean Schmidt (52%) narrowly defeated Democrat Paul Hackett (48%) for the OH-02 Congressional seat. In a district that ordinarily votes 70% GOP from the top of the ticket down, Hackett's strong showing at the polls is truly extraordinary. So, how well does Hackett's strong showing bode for Democratic gains in '06? Is this race a harbinger of a blue tide in '06, or was this race a once-in-a-blue-moon convergence of factors?
Blue Tide
Political observers love special and off-year elections. They often serve as bellwethers of the national mood, and provide clues as to how the parties will fare in the on-year Congressional and Presidential races. As for the OH-02 race as a barometer of the national mood and a harbinger of the '06 results, prominent political observer Charlie Cook had this to say:If Schmidt's victory margin is in double digits, this tells us that there is not much of an anti-GOP wind in Ohio right now. If the margin is say six to nine points for Schmidt, then there is a wind, but certainly no hurricane. A Schmidt win of less than five points should be a very serious warning sign for Ohio Republicans that something is very, very wrong, while a Hackett victory would be a devastating blow to the Ohio GOP. Schmidt won by a little less than four points, indicating the Democrats are poised to pick up seats next Fall.
Blue Moon
Still, there are some very specific circumstances that helped Hackett achieve such an unexpectedly strong showing. The Ohio GOP has been rocked by corruption scandals, most notably "Coingate." Jean Schmidt has close ties to Coingate's most prominent offenders, and the Hackett campaign never ceased to hammer Schmidt about it. The Hackett campaign received incredible donor and volunteer support from the "netroots" to the tune of roughly $400,000 and canvassers from around the country. (Though it should be noted that the Schmidt campaign's spending was roughly $1 million and very well organized on the ground.) The influx of cash and volunteers for Hackett seemed to catch the Schmidt campaign flat-footed. Finally though equally importantly, Paul Hackett's recent service in Iraq lended him a current credibility few ordinary candidates would ever have, let alone deserve. No doubt these factors would be hard to repeat in 200+ congressional districts.
National Trends
But certain factors in the OH-02 race do suggest broader, more national trends. The "culture of corruption" in Ohio that Hackett ran against easily translates to the national scene. GOP Congressional leaders such as Tom Delay and prominent White House figures such as Karl Rove remind the public every day of Washington Republican corruption. While Hackett did not advocate an immediate withdrawal from Iraq, he constantly criticized the war as a mistake, and spared no words in blaming Bush and the GOP Congress for it. (He even famously called Bush a "son of a bitch!") National polls show most people are now thinking the war was a mistake, and Bush's approval ratings seem static in the low 40's. 48% of OH-02 were ready to buck the GOP establishment in a 70% GOP district. If this doesn't indicate a larger anti-establishment mood, I'm not sure what does.
So, if the Democrats want to pick up seats in '06, OH-02 provides them a partial blueprint for success: Run strongly against establishment corruption, run strongly against the GOP botching the war, and run strongly against the President. Be anti-establishment.
Posted at 03:25 am by matty_fred
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Tuesday, August 02, 2005
Today there is a special election to fill an open congressional seat in Ohio-02. While the district leans extraordinarily Republican, Democrat and Iraq War II vet Paul Hackett has made a race out of it. Further helping Hackett's chances, his opponent State Senator Jean Schmidt has been caught up in the Ohio GOP "Coingate" scandal. While Hackett still remains very much the underdog, his campaign seems to be peaking at exactly the right moment. A strong showing by Hackett today could prove a harbinger of Democratic gains in '06. The excellent Swing State Project will provide extensive coverage of OH-02 into the evening. Check it out.
Posted at 03:12 pm by matty_fred
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Monday, August 01, 2005
raffy holds a conference call
Posted at 11:50 pm by matty_fred
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gloating on deadline sunday
Posted at 01:35 am by matty_fred
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Thursday, July 28, 2005
Once again, Manny Ramirez is asking to be traded. On Tuesday, SI.com reported that Ramirez, for at least the third time in four seasons, had asked to be traded. The report said he told club officials he was unhappy in Boston, especially with an off-field lack of privacy.
The Red Sox will explore trading him before Sunday's deadline, but that will be tough, Lucchino said.
"Because of the size of his contract, obviously, it's hard," he said. "There aren't a lot of clubs that are going to be interested, but it depends how little you're willing to take in return with respect to trades. I'm not talking about Manny specifically, although it certainly applies to him."
A club might want to make a deal if it asks the Red Sox to pay 95 percent of Ramirez's salary, "but that's not a particularly intelligent thing for us to do," Lucchino said. Lack of privacy? Perhaps he should ask to be traded to Tampa Bay. That should be low-profile enough.
Posted at 11:41 pm by matty_fred
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for now, a seller's market
There's a neat page on Baseball Prospectus with daily-updated odds on each team's chances of making the playoffs. Every day, their computer simulates the rest of the season one million times and BP provides the results. Pretty cool, in a geeky sort of way.
According to BP, 13 teams have at least a 20% chance of making the playoffs. That's a lot of teams still legitimately in the hunt. Furthermore, 19 of the 30 major-league teams have records of .500 or better – almost two-thirds of the majors. How's that for parity?
As the trade deadline approaches this Sunday, there are a lot more buyers at this time of the season than last. Not only are there more teams still in contention looking to buy, but the usually perennial sellers like Pittsburgh have their financial houses more in order and don't urgently need to dump salary as they have in the past. In previous seasons with more sellers and less buyers, would a pitcher like A.J. Burnett be in such high demand? Persistent questions regarding his durability haven't staved off bidding wars between the Orioles, Phillies, et. al.. It's a sellers market.
The trade deadline, though, is not a hard deadline. The trade deadline marks the end of the ability of teams to trade players without first putting them on waivers. Plenty of players have been acquired after the trade deadline, recently and perhaps most notably Larry Walker by the Cardinals. If any big trades happen this year, I expect them to happen after the trade deadline when the current field of 13 teams in the playoff hunt get whittled down a bit. Then again, if the playoff races remain as tight as they are currently, maybe no big trades will happen at all.
Posted at 06:26 pm by matty_fred
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