memos: matty_fred at hotmail
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Tuesday, August 02, 2005
Today there is a special election to fill an open congressional seat in Ohio-02. While the district leans extraordinarily Republican, Democrat and Iraq War II vet Paul Hackett has made a race out of it. Further helping Hackett's chances, his opponent State Senator Jean Schmidt has been caught up in the Ohio GOP "Coingate" scandal. While Hackett still remains very much the underdog, his campaign seems to be peaking at exactly the right moment. A strong showing by Hackett today could prove a harbinger of Democratic gains in '06. The excellent Swing State Project will provide extensive coverage of OH-02 into the evening. Check it out.
Posted at 03:12 pm by matty_fred
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Monday, August 01, 2005
raffy holds a conference call
Posted at 11:50 pm by matty_fred
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gloating on deadline sunday
Posted at 01:35 am by matty_fred
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Thursday, July 28, 2005
Once again, Manny Ramirez is asking to be traded. On Tuesday, SI.com reported that Ramirez, for at least the third time in four seasons, had asked to be traded. The report said he told club officials he was unhappy in Boston, especially with an off-field lack of privacy.
The Red Sox will explore trading him before Sunday's deadline, but that will be tough, Lucchino said.
"Because of the size of his contract, obviously, it's hard," he said. "There aren't a lot of clubs that are going to be interested, but it depends how little you're willing to take in return with respect to trades. I'm not talking about Manny specifically, although it certainly applies to him."
A club might want to make a deal if it asks the Red Sox to pay 95 percent of Ramirez's salary, "but that's not a particularly intelligent thing for us to do," Lucchino said. Lack of privacy? Perhaps he should ask to be traded to Tampa Bay. That should be low-profile enough.
Posted at 11:41 pm by matty_fred
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for now, a seller's market
There's a neat page on Baseball Prospectus with daily-updated odds on each team's chances of making the playoffs. Every day, their computer simulates the rest of the season one million times and BP provides the results. Pretty cool, in a geeky sort of way.
According to BP, 13 teams have at least a 20% chance of making the playoffs. That's a lot of teams still legitimately in the hunt. Furthermore, 19 of the 30 major-league teams have records of .500 or better – almost two-thirds of the majors. How's that for parity?
As the trade deadline approaches this Sunday, there are a lot more buyers at this time of the season than last. Not only are there more teams still in contention looking to buy, but the usually perennial sellers like Pittsburgh have their financial houses more in order and don't urgently need to dump salary as they have in the past. In previous seasons with more sellers and less buyers, would a pitcher like A.J. Burnett be in such high demand? Persistent questions regarding his durability haven't staved off bidding wars between the Orioles, Phillies, et. al.. It's a sellers market.
The trade deadline, though, is not a hard deadline. The trade deadline marks the end of the ability of teams to trade players without first putting them on waivers. Plenty of players have been acquired after the trade deadline, recently and perhaps most notably Larry Walker by the Cardinals. If any big trades happen this year, I expect them to happen after the trade deadline when the current field of 13 teams in the playoff hunt get whittled down a bit. Then again, if the playoff races remain as tight as they are currently, maybe no big trades will happen at all.
Posted at 06:26 pm by matty_fred
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Judith Miller sits in jail ostensibly for refusing to divulge a source who outed Valerie Plame as a CIA operative. But Judith Miller never wrote a story outing Valerie Plame. Can one have a source to protect without a story? I suppose one could. But why would journalist Judith Miller be a subject in an investigation concerning leaking classified information to journalists?
Maybe Judith Miller isn't sitting in jail protecting her sources for some high-minded journalistic principle. Maybe she's trying to protect herself from criminal indictment.It's July 6, 2003, and Joe Wilson's now famous op-ed piece appears in the Times, raising the idea that the Bush administration has "manipulate[d]" and "twisted" intelligence "to exaggerate the Iraqi threat." Miller, who has been pushing this manipulated, twisted, and exaggerated intel in the Times for months, goes ballistic. Someone is using the pages of her own paper to call into question the justification for the war -- and, indirectly, much of her reporting. The idea that intelligence was being fixed goes to the heart of Miller's credibility. So she calls her friends in the intelligence community and asks, Who is this guy? She finds out he's married to a CIA agent. She then passes on the info about Mrs. Wilson to Scooter Libby (Newsday has identified a meeting Miller had on July 8 in Washington with an "unnamed government official"). Maybe Miller tells Rove too -- or Libby does. The White House hatchet men turn around and tell Novak and Cooper. The story gets out. Intriguing theory. Not only does it explain the reason for no story, it also gets at the heart of why Matt Cooper was "released" by his source and testified to the grand jury, while Miller was not "released." Judith Miller isn't a journalist in this affair – she's part of the story. In fact, she's been part of the story for at least three years.
If you cover the news, you are a journalist and you can rightfully invoke journalistic principles. For a good three years now, Judith Miller hasn't been covering the news. She's been making it. "Journalistic principles" do not apply.
Posted at 02:10 am by matty_fred
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Friday, July 22, 2005
steroids: when should you be outraged?
Derek Jacques of Baseball Prospectus provides a handy guide.
Posted at 04:07 pm by matty_fred
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