Thursday, November 10, 2005
Virginia is for Lovers (of Democratic Guv'ners)
Despite an eleventh-hour campaign appearance by President Bush, GOP Virginia gubernatorial candidate Jerry Kilgore was soundly defeated by Democrat Tim Kaine Tuesday night. The President's very public campaign appearance at Kilgore's side just a day before Kilgore's lackluster showing at the polls have inevitably led many observers to speculate the President did more to harm Kilgore's chances than to help them.
This evening, the generally Bush-supportive Fox News Channel released a poll pegging Bush's national approval rate at 36%, and his disapproval at 53%. Other recent polls have consistently pegged Bush's approvals in the mid 30's, and his disapprovals in the high 50's. The President currently is very unpopular. While his appearance with Kilgore in Virginia may have hurt the GOP's campaign for the Virginia governorship, there is a larger trend in Virginia which favors the Democrats in statewide races: a growing Democratic base.
Virginia Gubernatorial Vote by Candidates' Major Party Affiliation, 1997-2005:
|
|
DEM Candidate |
|
GOP Candidate |
|
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1997 |
|
738,971 |
|
969,062 |
|
1,708,033
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2001 |
|
984,177 |
|
887,234 |
|
1,871,411 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2005 |
|
1,024,914 |
|
911,861 |
|
1,936,775 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| % Dif. |
|
+39% |
|
-6% |
|
+13% |
% Dif. = percentage difference between 1997 and 2005.Democrat Mark Warner, the out-going and very popular Governor of Virginia seems to have his sights set on a presidential run in 2008. If Warner is the Democratic nominee, Virginia would most probably move from a "lean-Republican" state to a "lean-Democratic" state in the electoral college calculus. Since the current Republican national strategy relies heavily on Virginia as a "safe Republican" state in presidential elections, a Warner candidacy would cause the national GOP much consternation.
But with or without Mark Warner as the Democratic nominee, the trend in Virginia suggests that by 2008 the state will be a battleground.
Posted at 11:36 pm by matty_fred
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Ken Burns
November 11, 2005 12:17 PM PST
". . . by 2008 the state will be a battleground. . . "
(now imagine olde-tymey fiddle music)
. . . Just as it was for so many rebels and union men alike at places like Bethel Church, Bull Run, Seven Pines, Ox Hill, Rappahannock Station, Cold Harbor, and Five Forks.
-Merriweather P. Stevens, First Massachussetts, Company B, June, 1865.
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